High confidence
Multiple sources line up on the core facts and the counter-case is mostly about second-order implications rather than first-order uncertainty.
Guide
Confidence is a claim about the evidence, not a mood.
Readers should be able to tell whether a story is settled, still moving, or too thin to lean on. The confidence label exists to make that judgment explicit.
Medium confidence
The broad shape is visible, but important evidence is still moving. The likely interpretation is becoming clearer without being fully settled.
Low confidence
The reporting is early, narrow, or highly contested. The honest move is to say the picture is unstable instead of forcing a strong conclusion.